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Monday, March 9, 2020

Fear. Another Calamity. Catskill Farms' Journey

I've seen a bunch since I've been in business.  Saw the boom in the early 2000's which was frenzied enough to allow some space for a small fry to get in the game, bounce along the learning curve and come out the other side ok.

I saw the contraction of 2007-2013, where we were said to be 'the only company in the USA' still selling homes.  Granted that may have been because our client was a small narrow niche slice of Manhattanites who still had good jobs and their real estate held steady.  No lending, major stock declines, with only Triple AAA rated folks (ie., Catskill Farms' only type of client).

We've seen the 2014-2019 Hudson Valley boomlet, with competitors coming from all directions (albeit with mostly unsustainable products and price points).

And now the next one, which I've been waiting for.  didn't know what it would be, but history instructs us well on the inevitability of business cycles.  For while the symptom of the stock markets woes may be a cough and a sneeze, the root was sugar-high valuations just waiting to be spooked.

So, we are getting more calls, more emails, more urgency, as people plan for the worst, and are looking for the security a little home upstate can provide.

I definitely remember a few calls back when the world was ending 11 years ago today (low point of stock market), with frightened young families on the other end, looking for an upstate home, looking for getaway in case they need to getaway in a hurry if, as rumored, civilization may have been coming to an end as we knew it.

Though, I do have to say losing $500 in a risk free money market account today was a weird consequence of the panic.

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